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If Only!

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Oct 122011

I usually start writing on Sunday or Monday night, during the late game. Had the chance watching the Eagles game while my youngest was napping. GREAT weekend at the beach, btw, so no IF ONLY about going away this weekend. Was going to start off with and IF ONLY of sitting Mike Wallace, but then he scored a 40 yd TD. Big play talent on a passing team, don’t ever sit.

IF ONLY I had picked up Pierre Garcon. I’ve chased Garcon more often in the past couple of years than I have that drunk semi good looking girl at the bar after a fight with my on again off again girlfriend. And, similar to my social bar skills a as a young man, came away very disappointed. Maybe hard to tell how real he finally is, but he followed up last week’s 146 yd 2TD performance with 125 yd 2D this week. That performance would help anybody.

IF ONLY I had played Roethlisberger instead of Orton. Normally a no brainer, but with Big Ben’s injury and my trip to the beach, just didn’t get the chance to look or switch. Don’t know anybody that saw 5 TD’s coming. If there was any doubt, Pit is a passing team, and Roethlisberger is a good QB.

IF ONLY I had played McGahee instead of Tolbert. Not much you can do about a concussion. I’ve been stubbornly sticking with Tolbert, and after a decent start, thought it would pay off. SD has a bye next week, and Tolbert should be back. As for McGahee, he’s not going away. Not much in the TD department yet, but three 100 yd games out of the past 4. After the bye, he has Mia, Det, Oak, and KC on the schedule. So now the question is, why wouldn’t you be playing him (well, maybe Tebow)?

IF ONLY I had played anybody except for Harvin. 34 points in the game for Minn and Harvin has 12 rush and 11 rec yds? Also left the game for a bit with bruised ribs. Not sure you’ll ever play anyone in Min except for Peterson this season.

IF ONLY I had played Schaub instead of Ryan. Hindsight is 20/20, and think 100 out of 100 times I’d still make the same decision. I mean, Packers have had a sieve defense, Ryan is a good QB with talented WR, and Schaub lost his best WR. Ryan’s inconsistency has killed me in the past, and stuck another dagger there. Schaub meanwhile, can play, although he is listed as day to day due to a shoulder. Both have some great matchups coming up, so I can see this becoming a weekly IF ONLY. If you don’t want the headache, draft Rodgers, Brees, or Brady, and don’t look back.

IF ONLY I had played anybody instead of Steve Johnson. Have him on 6 teams. Not sure how that happened. As you can see by my record, sitting him would have been good. I’ll point out BGE as the switch, for 2 reasons. One, he had the most points of who I would have played, and two, the NYJ run defense. Not sure what has happened to them, but his 136 yds and 2 TD’s proved that you can run on the Jets. Coming up against the Jets are Miami, SD, Buf, NE, Den, so play accordingly.

If ONLY I had gone with SD instead of NYG in my survivor pool. Really, not sure how to spin this. A west coast team playing on the east coast at 1pm. The Seahawks? Still had NE, NO, SD, GB, HOU, DET, and others to go with. Only consolation is I am not the only one, as half the pool went down with me.

Horrible week for me all around, going 0-4 in my big leagues and 0-6 in my ESPN leagues. A complete shutout. Do as I say, not as I do.

New Rankings Report Posted

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Oct 072011

We have just posted our Rankings Report for Week 5!

	QB Rankings

	Henry	Ray	Steve
1	Aaron Rodgers	Aaron Rodgers	Matthew Stafford
2	Tom Brady	Drew Brees	Aaron Rodgers
3	Michael Vick	Philip Rivers	Michael Vick
4	Cam Newton	Matt Ryan	Drew Brees
5	Drew Brees	Tom Brady	Matt Ryan

You can see the entire list under our Ranking Reports Tab!

Targets Report, post-week 4:

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Oct 062011

Targets Report, post-week 4:

That’s four games complete as we pass the quarter-pole on the NFL season. Join the Professor in the library, and let’s have a look at targets for the week, shall we?

Bulls-eyes:

Julio Jones is our all star on the targets report this week. After roughly 7 passes thrown his way in each of the first three weeks, he saw a whopping 17 targets playing at Seattle. Roddy White is working through an injury (but still saw an impressive 11 targets), so Jones is the man with the production in Atlanta.

Jimmy Graham joins Wes Welker and Hakeem Nicks with 14 targets each. We expect Welker and Nicks at the top of this report each week. Graham was my pick to get Colston’s production while he was out on injury. Unfortunately, Colston is on his way back, so temper expectations for Graham.

A total of 20 players were thrown to 10 or more times in week 4. Every week this year that number has gotten larger, and it is a trend you cannot ignore.

The usual WR suspects were all in the 10+ club, and I’m not listing them all this week.

So who were the surprises in the 10+ club for week 1?

AJ Green makes his second career visit to the list. The kid is for real, and so is his quarterback Andy Dalton.
Antonio Brown makes his first appearance in the club. He’s been solid all year, lurking just short of the 10 spot, expect similar numbers from him is Roethlisberger is healthy.
Laurent Robinson gets a fluke day. Miles Austin will be back, there is nothing to see here, please move along.
Legedu Naanee had 11 targets, but only 4 receptions for a paltry 27 yards. This is one of those times where the statistics lie, as no one should think about rostering Naanee.
And finally, Ed Dickson, the Baltimore TE, had a massive 12 targets, but a disappointing 4 receptions. Flacco is trying to get him the ball, but had serious accuracy issues in the Jets game. I honestly need another week to figure out the story here.

The RBs with 8+ targets a week get a mention every week for their PPR value:

LeSean McCoy led the RB pack with 9 targets.
Montario Hardesty joined him with 9 targets, but he is not the real McCoy.
Jahvid Best had 8 targets for the second week in a row, but only caught 2 of them this week, which is a let-down.
Steven Jackson had 8 targets, one of which he converted for a TD. Welcome back to the ranks of the healthy, S-Jax.
Fred Jackson and Mike Tolbert had 8 targets each, but neither did verey much with their opportunities.

Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon had 8 targets each with Curtis Painter under center. Garcon only caught 2 of them, but both were TDs, which is pretty efficient. Does this translate to life signs for the Colts, or is it a mirage?

Unable to Convert:

This week’s theme is “Why am I stuck with this QB?” There are a handful of players who are unable to convert targets into production, and it just plain isn’t their fault.

Ed Dickson, mentioned above, was impacted by a bad day from his QB, Joe Flacco. Flacco will be up and down, he’s that kind of player, but at least there are some up days like last week.

Jason Hill developed a rapport with Blaine Gabbert in the pre-season, and benefited from that rapport with 9 looks from the rookie QB. Only 2 of those 9 looks turned into yards, as 7 hit the ground.

Here’s a trifecta of awful for you. Santonio Holmes only caught 3 of his 11 targets, Plaxico Burress was 3 for 8, and poor Dustin Keller was a mere 2 for 8. Even LaDanian Tomlinson was an abysmal 1 for 3. What do these fine players have in common? Mark Sanchez.

Pierre Garcon caught 2 of his 8 passes, while Reggie Wayne only caught 4 of 8. Bit of a downgrade in accuracy from Peyton Manning to Curtis Painter.

Sometimes, though, it really is the guy catching the ball. Mario Manningham just looked bad in the Giants game against the Cards, catching only 1 of 5. The door is open for Victor Cruz, who looked very good as a starting WR.

Invisible Men:

Mike Wallace and Vincent Jackson were targeted just four times each, a big let-down in their activity levels.

Brandon Gibson, Aurelius Benn and Devery Henderson had just 1 target each.

Nick Kroll From The League New Comedy Special!

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Oct 052011

If you are any sort of Fantasy Football fan, you know the name Nick Kroll! He plays “Ruxin” from the TV show “The league” which kicks off its third season premier tomorrow night on FX. Well Nick is pretty funny on the show, but turns out he is really funny on his own as well. He has a new stand up special out on DvD which is hilarious!

The 3^rd season of “The League” starts tomorrow night at 10:30 est on the FX channel. I am so looking forward to another season of watching a bunch of guys who remind us of our friends in our own fantasy leagues having fun trying to get over on each other. Last season ended with Ruxin(played by Nick Kroll)defeating Jenny(Katie Aselton) winning the league championship or Shiva bowl as they refer to it .Kevin(Stephen Rannazissi) changed up Jenny’s line up ultimately giving Ruxin the win. Andre(Paul Scheer) battled Taco(Jon Lajoie) in the Saco bowl. Pete(Mark Duplass) picked up a crown vic and pretended to be a cop in the last episode saving the whole cast except, Ruxin, from the police as the trophie ends up in a windshield of a car.

As Ruxin walks out of the police department he holds the trophy high in the air. The unrelenting reign of Shiva with Ruxin starts off season 3 and I can’t wait!

If you caught Nick’s hour long special on Comedy central this past January you won’t want to miss his new comedy stand up DVD coming out. It will be absolutely hysterical and a must have for every fantasy owner. Look for “The League” on FX and Nick Kroll’s DVD in stores. Check out the info below as well as a few clips from the show!

How cool! The first stand-up special by Nick Kroll (“The League”), “Nick Kroll: Thank You Very Cool” will be released on DVD and DTO by COMEDY CENTRAL Home Entertainment. The DVD is uncensored and extended with over 20 minutes of material not seen on COMEDY CENTRAL and 20 minutes of bonus features. The release of the DVD will coincide with the premiere of new episodes of “The League” on FX. “Nick Kroll: Thank You Very Cool” will be released in the U.S. on DVD and download-to-own including iTunes, Amazon Video On Demand and in high definition on Xbox LIVE Marketplace and PlayStation Store.

Comedy Central Stand-Up
Get More: Jokes,Joke of the Day,Funny Jokes

Kroll blows the doors off the conventional stand-up special, weaving in hilarious short films as well as appearances from his infamous characters Fabrice Fabrice, Bobby Bottleservice, El Chupacabra and Gil Faizon. Filmed live at Brooklyn’s Music Hall of Williamsburg, this extended and uncensored special is a must own for all comedy fans. The DVD is also packed with 20 minutes of bonus features that include: a Fabrice Q & A with the audience, Fabrice after show, Fabrice outtakes, Bobby B outtakes, Oh, Hello outtakes and the Chupa sponsor reel.

Jokes.com

Exclusive – Fabrice Fabrice – Question and Answer

comedians.comedycentral.com

Nick Kroll

Comedians

Stand-Up

Kroll leads the pack of a new generation of comedy minds as a versatile actor, writer and producer. He has been named one of Variety’s “10 Comics to Watch” and was featured in COMEDY CENTRAL’s “Hot List of ’09″. Currently, Kroll stars on FX’s comedy series, “The League,” a part-improv, part-scripted comedy from Jackie and Jeff Schaffer (“Seinfeld,” “Curb Your Enthusiasm”) that is set to return in October. He also appeared in “Little Fockers,” opposite Ben Stiller, “Dinner for Schmucks,” opposite Paul Rudd and “Date Night,” opposite Steve Carell and Tina Fey. Other feature credits include “Get Him to the Greek,” “I Love You Man” and “A Good Old Fashioned Orgy.” Kroll’s writing work includes contributions to “Chappelle’s Show,” “The Life and Times of Time,” “Human Giant” and the best selling coffee table book, Bar Mitzvah Disco, which he co-wrote.

Comedy Central Stand-Up
Get More: Jokes,Joke of the Day,Funny Jokes

Additionally, Kroll lends his voice to the animated series, “The Life and Times of Time” for HBO, in which he plays Stu, Tim’s best friend. He starred in ABC’s “Cavemen,” based on the highly popular Geico advertisements and has also made appearances on CBS’s “Worst Week,” VH1′s “Best Week Ever” and on “RENO 911!” He is also well known for his characters, including: Fabrice Fabrice, the craft services coordinator for the TV show “That’s So Raven;” Bobby Bottleservice, who loves his mother very much and wears Ed Hardy head to toe; and Gil Faizon, an upper west side, middle-aged divorcee who is obsessed with Alan Alda, of the “Oh, Hello Show,” which he created with John Mulaney.
Nick Kroll – “Thank You Very Cool” DVD Bonus Clip by TheSyndicate

Now go out and get the whole show, you wont be disappointed!

If Only

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Oct 052011

IF ONLY I had played Mike Thomas instead of Meachem. 2 points to make. Think I have led each week with a NO WR reference. Frustrating without a real go to guy. You hope for TD’s when a QB spreads the ball around, and Meachem didn’t get one this week. You just never know. Thomas, meanwhile, is the clear #1 for Jac. Not necessarily advocating him as a starter now, but as Gabbert develops into the season, he could be a good option. If Gabbert can get over 50% completions, watch out!

IF ONLY I had played Romo instead of Grossman. Even with his heroics last week, still had several concerns about Romo, his injuries, receiver injuries. After Flacco torched St. Louis last week, figured, how could I lose with Grossman? Romo’s 3 int’s didn’t help, and since 2 were pick 6s, he lost. But in fantasty, 3TD’s and 300 yds will help you a lot. Rex Grossman is, well, Rex Grossman. He won, but fantasy is all about the numbers. Think I’ll keep Romo in for a while.

IF ONLY I had played Andy Dalton instead of Roethlisberger. No, not really, but he did score more points, so…Roethlisberger is now injured, so monitor appropriately. I think the bigger point is that bye weeks are coming up next week. Cincinnati plays Jac and Ind before their bye, Sea and Ten after. AJ Green is proving his worth.

IF ONLY I had played Lloyd instead of S. Johnson. Almost made the last minute switch. GB has had trouble with the pass, and Lloyd is getting healthy. My history on last minute switches has proven disastrous, so I didn’t. Here, I should have. Problem is, I am not sure what to do with Lloyd. His groin was acting up, and Denver has been spotty. Johnson has been solid, but more so because of his TD’s and not his yardage. Think I will have to monitor. Hard to sit Johnson. If it is a 3 WR league, I am sure they are both in, if you only play 2, probably a matchup play every week. Lesson is, unless he is a true #1 receiver, take a look at the matchup.

IF ONLY I had played S. Smith instead of D. Moore. Got enamored with Moore’s last 2 weeks, and their opponent in NE. Wasn’t quite sure how Car passing would do against Chi. Well, Cam looks like a legit NFL QB, and a legit fantasy starter. I am blaming Ray for dousing my man crush on Smith. He looks good. After 4 games, 3 outstanding for Cam/Smith, think both need to be weekly starts.

IF ONLY I had played Sproles instead of Hightower. Well, 2 fantasy points from a starting RB sucks. Turner did it last week. But I think you are keeping him in your lineup. Not so sure about Hightower. Apparent shoulder injury, so keep an eye out. And of course, it wasn’t Helu that picked up the slack, but left for dead Torain. Sproles isn’t getting the ball much, but is making the most of when he does. Think most fantasy owners would be hard pressed to find a better flex option. 13, 11, 14, 12. Those are his points these first four games.

IF ONLY I had played Manning instead of Fitzpatrick. To be honest, not sure what happened with Buffalo. They had been so hot, how could you sit Fitz. Can’t score 40 points every game. What I should have been looking at is the tasty passing matchup NYG had against Ariz. My problem is, I hate the Giants. I may have drafted Manning, but God forbid I play him. Don’t let personal feelings get in the way of your lineup. Points are points, and fantasy is all about the numbers.

Went with TB in my Survivor pool, so good there. Whew!

Waiver Wire Report, post-week 4:

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Oct 042011

Waiver Wire Report, post-week 4:

Enjoy the Professor’s weekly waiver article. I usually call it a bonanza, but it’s ugly out there for needy teams right now and you might be forced to check out trade options to fix holes in your team. Note that this is before the MNF game between the Colts and Bucs. Any necessary changes to this article will be made tomorrow.

You can read his report by clicking here.

The Man in the Basement

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Oct 012011

GUEST EDITORIAL

Coming to you from a basement somewhere in the Midwest it’s
“The Man in the Basement”

This week I am dog sitting my friend’s dog, Magic. I am staying in his, guess, “that’s right”, basement. As a basement offcialdo I feel qualified to rank this as a five star basement. It’s as big as some two bedroom apartments; pool table, bar, a “new fangled” washer and dryer and a separate basement living room where I currently reside. There is a couch, love seat, recliner and best of all a fifty five inch Samsung HD TV.

Anyway Magic the dog is motivated by food and treats more than any dog I know and believe me in my illustrious life I have known a dog or two. Near the top of the list is a treat called “Greenies” It is an extruded green substance in the shape of a tooth brush that dogs go crazy over. I also give her bitter pills inside a treat with a pocket.

This week’s fantasy “Greenies” are Tony Romo, Kevin Kobb and Santana Moss against the porous secondaries of Detroit, the Giants and St. Louis.

Philip Rivers is this week’s bitter pill disguised inside a treat as I expect a Miami defense to shut down a Gates less San Diego Team (he means that much to San Diego) Speaking of Antonio Gates, last week was what we call “Fantasy Orgasm Interruptous” and Gates should be put on hold until further notice.

This week’s Fun Pick From a Parallel dimension is fullback James Curry of the Houston Texans in those leagues that list him as a TE/RB. Say no more.

Remember “Life is Just a Tire Swing”

Targets Report, Post-Week 3:

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Sep 302011

Targets Report, post-week 3:

That’s three games in the books, it’s time to see if there are any trends to be sniffed out in the targets report. Join the Professor in the library, and let’s have a look, shall we?

Bulls-eyes:

Wes Welker had a 20 target day. Let me put that into perspective for you. Only Reggie Wayne had a single game 20 target day last year, and only once. That’s huge. Welker will always be in the 10+ club, but with Gronkowski out and the Bills giving them a game, Brady went to Welker a lot.

A total of 19 players were thrown to 10 or more times in week 3, up from 17 in week 2 and 15 in week 1. As teams are getting more comfortable with their playbooks, they are throwing the ball more. This is well ahead of the 2010 pace. Last year, it took until week 5 before there were that many players with that many looks. As you may have noticed, it’s a passing league in 2011.

The usual WR suspects were all in the 10+ club, and I’m not listing them all this week.

So who were the surprises in the 10+ club for week 1?

Brandon Pettigrew comes up big in week 3, getting 13 targets as the Vikings tried to take Calvin Johnson out of the game.
Anquan Boldin makes his first appearance in the club, benefitting from Flacco’s amazing QB day. If you think Flacco will keep it up, then Boldin stands to shine.
Eric Decker looks like a stud WR in this league, and Orton is certainly giving him the chances. I hope you got him as a waiver wire pickup.
Andre Caldwell makes a surprise appearance, and was probably under your radar because he only got 53 yards out of the targets. But if Dalton is focusing on him, he has some value and is likely out there waiting for you.
Donald Jones becomes the fourth Bill on this list, joining such household names as Scott Chandler, Stevie Johnson, and David Nelson.
And finally, Sidney Rice plays to his potential in Seattle. Welcome back, Sidney.

The RBs with 8+ targets a week get a mention every week for their PPR value:

Forte and Sproles were covered above, breaking the 10 reception mark.
Mike Tolbert and Ryan Mathews had 9 apiece, as Philip Rivers was forced to find other short yardage options when the Patriots took Gates out of the plan.
Ray Rice and Jahvid Best had 8 targets each, with a receiving TD for each of them. But you knew before the draft that they would be PPR titans.
Darren McFadden being looked at 8 times is a minor surprise, and may be attributed to the absence of Darius Heyward Bay and Jacoby Ford.

Torrey Smith had 8 targets, 5 receptions, 3 TDs and 152 yards. Jermichael Finley had 8 targets, 7 receptions, 3 TDs and only 85 yards. Finley is the more capable and consistent threat, but Smith is speedy and showed skills that were absent in the pre-season.

Mr. Consistency:

WR is one of those positions that can go up and down. Roddy White, for instance, has the second most targets in the NFL with 34, but he has one week with only 4. This volatility can be a fantasy killer. So let’s take a look at the consistent plays at WR, guys who’ve gotten 8+ targets three weeks in a row.

Wes Welker, with 12, 11, and 20.
Mike Wallace, 11, 9, 7
Steve Smith (CAR), 11, 13, 7
Andre Johnson, 11, 9, 12
Jason Witten, 9, 14, 9
Greg Jennings, 8, 8, 10
Brandon Marshall, 13, 11, 7
Larry Fitzgerald, 7, 9, 8
Nate Washington, 7, 11, 9
Calvin Johnson, 10, 7, 11
Reggie Wayne, 11, 8, 13
Mike Thomas, 11, 10, 8
Darren Sproles, 9, 10, 9
Miles Austin gets an honorable mention due to missing one week with an injury.

So the pickings are slim at consistently targeted WRs, and there is just one RB on the list, Sproles, who is a favorite target in New Orleans. The first 9 guys on that list are bona fide WR1 quality players for fantasy, and Kenny Britt would have been the 10^th. Targets predict production for fantasy purposes.

Unable to Convert:

Poor Poor Reggie Wayne. 13 targets, but only 3 receptions for 24 yards. For a guy used to Peyton Manning, it’s gotta be killing him. Take into account that Painter can only get better as the year goes along, so it migh, just might, be a “buy low” indicator for Reggie.

Dallas Clark only went 2 for 6 on his targets, also courtesy of Curtis Painter

Denario Alexander only caught 2 of his 8 targets, but the rams were getting smacked all around the stadium by the Ravens, so it is understandable.

Steve Smith of the Carolina Panthers caught two of his 7 targets, but he was playing in a monsoon. No one is going to have good stats in downpour running through three inshes of standing water.

Invisible Men:

Santonio Holmes was targeted just twice. This is a bad sign, as the Jets were throwing.

Randall Cobb had just 1 target in week 3. Not to say I told you so after week 1, but….

The Market Report, week 4:

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Sep 292011

The Market Report, week 4:

This is a weekly feature from the Professor. Every week during the regular season, he will give you his assessment of Sell, Hold, or Buy on fantasy players whose “perceived value” may be deceiving you.

Sell High: Joe Flacco. Always deal a guy after he has the biggest game of his life. Interest is high in Flacco and Torrey Smith, and both guys just reek of “regressing to the mean”. For those of you not into statistics, regression to the mean is when an outlier performance goes back to the baseline for the remainder of the season. Flacco will be solid, but if you have another solid QB, deal Flacco away at the peak of his value.

Sell High: DeSean Jackson. His value is dependent on Mike Vick’s ability to play elite football. With Vick getting used as a crash-test-dummy in the Eagles backfield, the passing offense has suffered. Jackson has a star quality name, and WR2 quality numbers. Deal him,

HOLD: One of last week’s HOLDs was Kenny Britt. Just a tragic injury to end the season, but one thing that statistics can’t predict on a week to week basis is injury.

HOLD: Ryan Mathews. I love a compelling trend, and Mathews’ yards each week have been increasing. Barring injury, he will be a solid play all year long. Also take into account that as long as Gates is out, Mathews (or Tolbert) will get those short yardage looks, quite valuable in PPR leagues.

HOLD: Chris Johnson. It’s time to worry, CJ2K fans. A substandard game against a vulnerable Broncos run defense is a huge flashing sign of danger. But he has the Texans and Browns in 2 of his next three games. I wouldn’t go out to buy him anymore, but if you have him, keep him and hope his stock goes up in a few weeks. Yes, I’m using the word “hope” which is always a bad sign.

HOLD: Darren McFadden. Don’t overreact to his groin injury. He may be limited for a week or two, but his talent and the situation in Oakland demand that you have D-Mac for the stretch run. If you have a skittish owner in your league, make a play for him, but don’t expect to get him.

Buy Low: Josh Freeman. Detroit and Minnesota have defenses that can negate the passing game. But the Bucs face a lot of very vulnerable defenses in upcoming weeks. If you drafted him, I know you are disappointed in Freeman, but a few more weeks will boost his value.

The Clearance Rack is for players who should be de-rostered, dropped, or kicked to the curb. I’m surprised at how many “who should I drop” questions I get, here’s the answer.

Clearance Rack: Kenny Britt sees his season end with an ACL tear. This one gets me, as I had him in a couple leagues and was enjoying the WR2 having a WR1 sort of season. Now I need some help, and so do you if you are a Britt owner.

Recording of Last Show!

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Sep 282011

You can listen here for the last show we did on Blogtalk Radio! Remember you can listen live every Tuesday and Wednesday at 10pm EST on Blogtalk radio.

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Older Entries

admin

If Only!

New Rankings Report Posted

Targets Report, post-week 4:

Nick Kroll From The League New Comedy Special!

If Only

Waiver Wire Report, post-week 4:

The Man in the Basement

Targets Report, Post-Week 3:

The Market Report, week 4:

Recording of Last Show!

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